We wanted to pass on this comprehensive market analysis and real estate housing update courtesy of Larry Murphy, Salestraq and Steve Bottfeld, Marketing Solutions:

Recent news stories indicate that:

• Homebuilders are beginning to seek land again.
• A stalled major commercial project (Tivoli Village) restarted construction;
• The Las Vegas Visitors and Convention Authority reported visitor volume increased 4.3 percent in September -- the first year-over-year monthly increase since May 2008; 
• The stock market is at its highest point this year.

October residential sales data shows a continued trend of good news.

       1. SUPPLY: There are 2.5 months of supply of active listings at current sales rates, the best this figure has been in five years.

       2. DEMAND: Both new and existing home sales totals are near year-long highs.

       3. PRICES: Remained relatively stable.

In short, the bottom of the residential real estate market appears to be solidifying and there could be an uptick as early as the end of this quarter or the beginning of the next quarter.

Here are the details:

SUPPLY: There are four key components to supply.

1. ACTIVE SUBDIVISIONS:  The number of active subdivisions slid to 235 a number not seen in this decade.  The total represents a drop of 7.5% from September and a 40.5% plunge from last year. 
2. MLS AVAILABLE LISTINGS:  The number of available listings continued their 12 month slide to 10,241, the lowest total since July 2004. Thats just a little over one half (51.5%) of the total last October and a 4.3% drop from last month.
3. NEW HOME PERMITS:  The total of 332 new home permits in October is 16% under last years total and 18.4% below Septembers figure.
4. FORECLOSURES:  The much ballyhooed avalanche of foreclosures has yet to inundate Las Vegas.  October saw 2,301 foreclosures, a total that is 1.9% less than September and 6% less than last year.  The number of foreclosures created was exactly 48 more than the number of foreclosures purchased.   

While this is the second consecutive month in which foreclosures created exceeded foreclosures sold, the differences can be counted in double digits.  In other words, Las Vegas is absorbing foreclosures almost as quickly as they are being created.

In 2008 there were 25,000 foreclosures and the total for this year will be about the same.  We anticipate that same rate to continue into 2010.  While we DO NOT anticipate 2 or 3 times that amount (like some who are predicting 50,000 to 75,000 foreclosures next year) we do see foreclosures continuing in a relatively steady stream of between 2,000 and 2,500 each month for the coming year of 2010.  Consequently, we expect prices to remain relatively stable where they have been for the past six months with a $120,000 to $125,000 median.

DEMAND:

1. NEW HOME SALES:  New home sales reached their highest point of the year in October.  While 486 sales is nothing to cheer about, October was the fourth consecutive month of new home sales increase in Las Vegas.  
2. EXISTING HOME SALES: 2009 will definitely see the highest existing home sales total since 2005.  October's 4,417 sales represent a 33.2% increase over the same month last year and a 2.3% increase over September.
3. FORECLOSURE SALES:  In March, foreclosures accounted for two out of every three existing home sales in Las Vegas (66%).  As of October, they accounted for just one out of two (51%).

PRICES:

1. NEW HOME PRICES:  Not unexpectedly, new home prices slid $6,000 to $205,000.  This is 16.6% below last year and a drop of 2.8% from last month. We say not unexpectedly for two reasons.  First, it appears to us that the new homes being sold are slightly smaller than those sold at this time last year.  Second, builders have begun to adjust pricing to compete more effectively, as indicated by rising new home sales.
2. EXISTING HOME PRICES: October and September median existing home prices are separated by just $500 ($123,000).  While the October figure is a decline of 31.7% from last year, it is an indication that prices are stabilizing.  Since April, existing home prices have bounced between $123,000 and $125,000. 

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