Las Vegas In Business reported August14,2010 - Las Vegas home prices to go up slightly in 2011

Mark Boud, a California-based economist and founder of Real Estate Economics, a real estate consulting firm, said he expects home prices to increase slightly in 2011 and by 2015 values could appreciate 7.5 percent a year.

Low home prices have driven sales in Las Vegas despite the weak economy and as it improves in 2011, that should spur more sales and some appreciation, Boud said. He said Las Vegas is 58 percent undervalued.

"If you look long term, Las Vegas is a screaming deal," Boud said. "Those who are buying now are paying 12 cents on the dollar (of their income) versus 35 percent in 2006."

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Foreclosure filings rose 4 percent nationwide last month versus June, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com. For the 17th straight month, total filings topped 300,000. A foreclosure filing is defined as default notice, scheduled auction, or bank repossession.

Nevada continued to document the nations highest foreclosure rate for the 43rd straight month, with one in every 82 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing in July.

A total of 13,727 Nevada properties received a foreclosure filing in July, a nearly 7 percent increase from the previous month but a nearly 30 percent decrease from July 2009. July was the 10th straight month where overall Nevada foreclosure activity decreased on a year-over-year basis. Las Vegas Foreclosure activity increased nearly 9 percent from the previous month, which registered the highest foreclosure rate among metropolitan areas with a population of 200,000 or more. One in every 71 Las Vegas housing units received a foreclosure filing in July, more than five times the national average.

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Take a look at this report (courtesy of Nevada Title) analyzing the median price history of the Las Vegas real estate market from January 2005 thru June 2010.

As you can see, the LAs Vegas real estate market has gained $8,096 since market bottom in January 2010. The time that has passed is 165 days from bottom. Thats a gain of $50 per day on the median price scale. From the peak at $324,000 to the bottom at $132,632, a total of $191,368 in equity was lost by property owners.

At the current rate of equity gain, it would take a little over 10 years to recover the lost equity. In terms of median price, the market should be interpreted as holding at the current levels with a slight positive propensity.

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This is the latest Las Vegas Real Estate Market Report from www.NARREIA.com (National Association of Residential Real Estate Investment Advisors). For the week of August 4, 2010, data is obtained from the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors MLS.

Single Family Residence (SFR)
Available - 10,215 (+197, Last Week 10,018)
Under Contract - 11,113 (-286, Last Week 11,399)
Days of Supply - 28 (+2, Last Week 26)
Short Sales - 12,603 (-47, Last Week 12,650)

Condominiums and Town Homes (CONDO/TH)
Available - 2,461 (+15, Last Week 2,446)
Under Contract - 2,735 (-96, Last Week 2,831)
Days of Supply - 27 (+1, Last Week 26)
Short Sales - 3,167 (-23, Last Week 3,190)

Combined SFR + CONDO/TH
Available - 12,676 (+212, Last Week 12,464)
Under Contract - 13,848 (-382, Last Week 14,230)
Days of Supply - 27 (+1, Last Week 26)
Short Sales - 15,770 (-70, Last Week 15,840)  

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REO Insider recently reported: Fannie's REO volume doubles on mounting foreclosures and longer disposition times

Fannie Mae acquired 68,838 single-family REO properties through foreclosure during Q210. At June 30, Fannie had 129,310 REO properties in its inventory, with a carrying value of $13bn - an increase from 62,615 properties valued at $6bn at the end of Q209. Fannie said it expects REO inventory will continue to "increase significantly" throughout 2010.

Fannie said 36% of its portfolio can't be listed for sale because the properties are protected under redemption periods. The redemption periods - which allow previous owners to reclaim the property by paying all the money owed on the mortgage - add four to six months to the time the property sits in Fannie's REO inventory.

Of the pool of unmarketable properties, Fannie said 36% are in occupied status, adding another one to three months to the disposition process. Other properties can't be sold because they're being repaired.

Preforeclosure sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure totaled 21,515, compared with 17,326 in the first quarter of 2010.

Calculated Risk Blog also reporting on this story stated "Fannie Mae: REO Inventory doubles, expected to increase "significantly".  Fannie Mae reported that their REO inventory more than doubled since Q2 2009, from 62,615 to 129,310 in Q2 2010.  As this chart from Calculated Risk blog demonstrates:

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 Shadow Inventory and the Las Vegas Real Estate market has been a much talked about and debated topic over the last year+.

ALTOS Research is reporting that ominous shadow inventory of distressed properties hanging over the industry will lock home prices into a downward trajectory for the remainder of this year, with property values starting out 2011 even lower than they were in 2009.  Market trends charted by Altos show that inventory levels are indeed moving higher and the influx of shadow inventory is beginning to show in the market.

Since January, and particularly post-tax credit stimulus, Altos has tracked a rapid divergence in inventory numbers vs. listings sold and absorbed.

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